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The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period is a crucial stage for promoting China's hydrogen energy industry to pass the economic inflection point and shift towards large-scale development. In recent years, China's green hydrogen production capacity has seen a leapfrog growth, and the hydrogen energy industry has entered a fast lane of large-scale and industrialized development. How to break through the red ocean competition with the dual drive of "policy + market" has become the core proposition for the high-quality development of China's hydrogen energy industry during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.

The conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan is approaching: from sporadic pilot projects to scale expansion

During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's hydrogen energy industry has gone through a very crucial ramp-up period, initially establishing a relatively complete hydrogen energy supply chain and industrial system covering all links from "production, storage, transportation to application".

At the 2025 International Hydrogen Energy Conference held on March 26-27, Liu Wei, secretary-general of the China Hydrogen Energy Alliance and director of the Hydrogen Energy Division of the National Energy Group, stated that China has developed into the world's largest producer and consumer of hydrogen and hydrogen-based derivatives. Up to now, China's hydrogen production capacity has exceeded 50 million tons per year, and the built renewable energy hydrogen production capacity has exceeded 120,000 tons per year. More than 540 hydrogen refueling stations have been built and the number of fuel cell vehicles in use has exceeded 28,000. There are over 80,000 patents related to hydrogen energy, and more than 560 special policies on hydrogen energy have been issued across the country. Laws and regulations such as the Energy Law have clearly defined the strategic position of hydrogen energy. Hydrogen energy has achieved breakthroughs in pilot demonstrations in multiple fields such as industry, transportation, metallurgy, and power.

However, experts also point out that China's hydrogen energy industry is still in its early stage of development and there are many problems to be solved, including the need to improve the economic efficiency of the industry, the need to break through the level of key technologies and equipment, and the need to improve some policy systems. Especially recently, a price war has emerged in the hydrogen energy equipment industry, and the projects that have been put into operation are facing safety risks and investment risks. It is suggested that a systematic research on the "15th Five-Year Plan" for the development of the hydrogen energy industry be carried out. Through the dual drive of policy guidance and market dominance, the hydrogen energy industry should be guided to open up "blue ocean opportunities" from the "red ocean competition".

Improve policy standards: From single-point breakthroughs to coordinated advancement

The systematic reconstruction of the policy system related to hydrogen energy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is regarded as the key to breaking the deadlock.

The technological development and rapid iteration of hydrogen energy are actually not in line with the current industry standard system construction, which has restricted international cooperation and industrial development. Zhang Yan, deputy general manager of the China Hydrogen Energy Alliance Research Institute, frankly admitted that China's hydrogen energy industry needs to further strengthen the top-level design and overall coordination of policies, promote breakthroughs in core technologies, enhance infrastructure construction, improve the public service system, and expand the scope of international cooperation, so as to provide strong support for building a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system.

Journalists have learned that currently, relevant standards such as green hydrogen certification and cross-regional hydrogen transmission pipelines still need to be improved, and the approval of hydrogen refueling stations in many places is subject to the management rules for hazardous chemicals.

Peng Suping, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, a professor at China University of Mining and Technology, and a member of the Strategic Guidance Committee of the China Hydrogen Energy Alliance, proposed that it is necessary to strengthen the guiding role of comprehensive, standardized and top-level design, study and formulate a national-level technical roadmap for hydrogen energy development, continuously improve the innovation system of hydrogen energy technology, promote collaborative innovation in the hydrogen energy industry chain, and enhance basic research and exploration of frontier technologies. Deepen the research on the hydrogen energy technology standard system, and at the same time, by setting up special guiding funds and improving the policy and legal system, further promote international cooperation in hydrogen energy technology and continuously improve the construction of the industrial ecosystem.

Yin Yutian, the general manager of the Hydrogen Energy Division of Aerospace Engineering, suggested that the industry pay attention to the safety and standardization of hydrogen energy equipment. "Electrolyzers are essentially generators of hazardous gases, but the industry still regards them as conventional equipment." If not incorporated into the chemical equipment management system, large-scale cluster operation will face extremely high safety risks. Yin Yutian suggested establishing mandatory standards for the energy efficiency and safety evaluation of electrolytic cells, restricting low-quality expansion, standardizing equipment production qualifications, and promoting the industry to shift from "homogeneous competition" to "high-quality competition".

In response, Bian Guangqi, deputy director of the Energy Conservation and Technology Equipment Department of the National Energy Administration, said that the National Energy Administration will increase policy support. In the "15th Five-Year Plan" for energy development, the development goals and paths for the hydrogen energy industry will be further clarified. Efforts will be made to promote the scientific layout of hydrogen energy projects and industries, and to advance the coordinated development of the entire chain of hydrogen energy, including production, storage, transportation and utilization.

Exploring business models: From Government Blood Transfusion to Market blood production

For the hydrogen energy industry to achieve rapid development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, it must overcome the threshold of "economic viability", which is also the biggest constraint currently faced by the industry.

Some large-scale hydrogen energy projects should not overly pursue low costs. Nowadays, many projects aim to get started quickly. Some even require equipment cycles of three months or even one month immediately after project initiation. How can the quality of such products be guaranteed? Even in some projects, the lowest bid is given priority, which can easily lead to the phenomenon of bad money driving out good. A person in charge of a hydrogen energy technology company admitted frankly.

The level of hydrogen energy technology has significantly improved, and equipment costs are also declining, but the profit situation of enterprises is not optimistic. The most crucial issue still lies in the fact that the market size is too small. To enhance the economic viability of the hydrogen energy industry, the first step is to expand the market scale. Jiang Lijun, chief scientist of China General Research Institute of Nonferrous Metals Technology Co., LTD., said.

Many experts attending the International Hydrogen Energy Conference proposed that to solve the economic problems of hydrogen energy, multiple breakthroughs are needed. They suggested promoting the application of green hydrogen in markets worth hundreds of billions of yuan such as ammonia synthesis and refining, and guiding the transformation of traditional industries through the carbon tax mechanism. Pilot the "hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty truck leasing + battery swapping service" model in ports and mining areas to explore the consumer market for hydrogen fuel cell passenger vehicles. Build an integrated "wind-solar-hydrogen-storage" base in the northwest, and achieve cross-regional regulation through carriers such as green ammonia and methanol. Take the lead in formulating relevant international standards such as Marine green methanol, and build a hydrogen-based fuel trade chain relying on the "Belt and Road Initiative".

Breakthroughs in core technologies are the foundation for the development of the hydrogen energy industry. Academician Peng Suping suggested that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, efforts should be made to accelerate the integrated research and development of new-generation alkaline and proton exchange membrane electrolytic water hydrogen production, 70-megapascal on-board hydrogen storage bottles, hydrogen blending in natural gas, 70-megapascal hydrogen refueling machines, proton exchange membrane fuel cells, and green flexible chemical engineering technologies, and actively promote the improvement of electrolytic cell efficiency and the reduction of costs.

The Medium and Long-Term Plan for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035) proposes that by 2030, a relatively complete technological innovation system for the hydrogen energy industry and a clean energy hydrogen production and supply system will be formed. The industrial layout will be reasonable and orderly, and hydrogen production from renewable energy will be widely applied, providing strong support for the realization of the carbon peak goal. The "15th Five-Year Plan" journey of the hydrogen energy industry is an energy revolution that is highly anticipated.