The petrochemical industry jointly draws the "3060" blueprint for energy
On April 28th, the Energy "3060" Outlook Forum of the 2025 Petrochemical Industry Development Conference was held in Beijing. Experts attending the meeting pointed out that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, China will continue to lead the global energy transition process. The positioning of fossil energy will shift to chemical raw materials, and green technologies such as new energy and CCUS (Carbon Dioxide Capture, Utilization and Storage) are also expected to achieve long-term development.
During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will continue to play a leading role and promote the large-scale deployment of clean energy technologies. Dai Jiquan, chief economist of the Research Institute of Economics and Technology of China National Petroleum Corporation and director of the Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Market Simulation and Price Prediction of China National Petroleum Corporation, pointed out that China adheres to the principle of "establishing new systems before phasing out old one", promoting the shift from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of carbon emissions. It is estimated that the peak demand for primary energy will reach 7 billion tons of standard coal in 2035, and the proportion of non-fossil energy will rise to 78% in 2060. Help achieve the "carbon neutrality" goal on schedule.
Liu Xiaoxiao, deputy chief engineer of the Economic and Technical Research Institute of Sinopec, said that currently, there is a huge gap between global climate goals and actions. To achieve climate goals, the development of new energy needs to be further accelerated. She particularly mentioned that hydrogen energy, as a high-quality energy and resource, will play a strategic role in the green, low-carbon, safe and orderly transformation of energy. After going through three stages of demonstration development, accelerated promotion and diversified application, hydrogen energy will reach an industrial scale of 86 million tons by 2060 and present a diversified application pattern.
Meanwhile, Marine new energy has huge development potential. For instance, offshore wind power is expected to have a total installed capacity of over 350 million kilowatts and a power generation of over 1.1 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2060, becoming an important part of China's power supply.
Energy pipelines are the "major arteries" of the petrochemical industry. Zhang Duihong, director of the Research Institute of the National Pipeline Network Group and deputy director and secretary-general of the Standing Committee of the Oil and Gas Storage and Transportation Society, said that China has made remarkable progress in energy pipeline construction, and a "national network" has basically taken shape. It is expected that by around 2040, the total mileage of oil and gas pipelines will reach over 300,000 kilometers. In the future, energy transmission pipelines will restructure their development paradigm through new quality productivity, evolving from traditional transmission channels to a new energy system, providing key support and innovative impetus for the global energy transition.
The oil refining industry is transforming from traditional fuel production to the production of chemical raw materials. Li Mingfeng, chairman and president of Sinopec Research Institute of Petroleum Processing Co., LTD., pointed out that the current oil refining industry is under tremendous pressure from capacity capping, peak fuel demand and product structure adjustment. Crude oil processing volume will drop to 300 million tons by 2060, mainly used for the production of chemicals and materials. Catalytic cracking, as an important process in the oil refining industry, will focus on the treatment of heavy raw materials to meet the demand for chemical raw materials.
CCUS technology is regarded as one of the key technologies for achieving the global carbon neutrality goal. Zhong Taixian, the former deputy general manager of the Science and Technology Management Department of China National Petroleum Corporation, introduced that China has made remarkable progress in research and practice in the field of CCUS. In the future, China's CCUS technology will achieve large-scale and clustered development, forming a smooth, efficient and green industrial chain. It is estimated that by 2060, China will have a carbon stockpile of 3 billion tons, supporting the country in achieving its carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals on schedule.
Zhu Yuying, the executive vice president of Aerospace Changzheng Chemical Engineering Co., LTD., pointed out that the current coal chemical industry is confronted with structural supply and demand contradictions, price competition, as well as challenges in green and digital transformation. In response to this, enterprises should promptly change their mindset, shifting from "making good use of coal" to "making good use of carbon", and make early plans for green carbon sources and coupling technologies to address the future challenges of carbon neutrality. At the same time, it is also necessary to actively explore the application of artificial intelligence technology in production and jointly promote the transformation and upgrading of the coal chemical industry.