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The Economic Research Institute of China National Petroleum Corporation released the 2024 Oil and Gas Industry Development Report and the outlook for the 15th Five-Year Plan

On January 21, 2025, the China National Petroleum Corporation Research Institute of Economics and Technology, a national high-end think tank, released the annual report on the oil and gas industry for the 17th consecutive year in Beijing - the "2024 Domestic and International Oil and Gas Industry Development Report" (referred to as the "Industry Report"), and at the same time released the "Outlook on the Development Environment of the Domestic and International Oil and Gas Industry during the 15th Five-Year Plan Period". And for the first time, it publicly released the "Energy Data Manual of China National Petroleum Corporation Economic Research Institute" to the public. The main creative team of the report shared and discussed the development trends of the oil and gas industry around the theme of "Exploring the Path of Energy Balance under Stability with Changes", and put forward judgments on the medium and long-term development trends in the future.

In 2024, the oil and gas industry as a whole will show a trend of "stability with changes", and the global economy will demonstrate resilience in a complex environment. In 2025, the oil and gas industry will enter a brand-new development environment of "seeking stability amid changes". The competition among major powers in the energy sector will intensify, profoundly altering the global energy development pattern. In the future, China's oil and gas industry will continue to play a key role in ensuring energy security and promoting economic development. At the same time, it will also accelerate the pace of green transformation to meet the requirements of sustainable development and continue to explore a balanced path. The press conference shared the core viewpoints of the report from multiple dimensions, including the energy situation, the oil and gas market, domestic and international oil and gas exploration and development, the international environment and cooperation, and the development trends of domestic and foreign oil companies.

The Industry Report analyzed the development trends of the global energy industry. In 2024, the global total of primary energy consumption will increase by 1.9% compared with the previous year, while China's will grow by 4%. China has become the world's largest energy producer and consumer. The global energy development is showing a trend of "stabilizing the total volume and accelerating the four modernizations" : the energy structure is becoming cleaner, the proportion of non-fossil energy in the global primary energy consumption structure is increasing by 0.6 percentage points, China's green and low-carbon transformation of energy continues to lead the world, and its investment in non-fossil energy accounts for one-third of the global total. The electrification rate of terminal energy consumption in China is expected to rise to approximately 29% in 2024 and increase to around 30% by 2025. Emerging technologies have been scaled up. The scale of China's new energy storage and CCS has doubled, and the industrial chain of green electricity - green hydrogen - green methanol - green ammonia has been continuously extended. The integration of multiple energy sources, the accelerated deep integration of traditional energy and new energy, and the exploration of the "oil and gas + new energy" model are promoting the entire industrial chain to move towards greenness and innovation. Looking ahead to 2025, global energy demand will continue to grow slightly, and the long-term trend of energy's transition towards green and low-carbon will not change.

The Industry Report makes an analysis and assessment of the global energy market. In 2024, international oil prices slightly declined, with the average annual price of Brent crude oil futures at $79.86 per barrel. China's crude oil imports reached 553 million tons, down 1.9% year-on-year. The country's dependence on foreign oil was 71.9%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. China's apparent consumption of oil in 2024 was 756 million tons, and the total consumption of refined oil products was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. The consumption of refined oil products turned from an increase to a decrease, mainly due to the continuous growth of new energy vehicles and the accelerated development of LNG heavy-duty trucks, which reduced the consumption of refined oil products. The average operating rate of oil refining enterprises in 2024 is 75%, and the rate of active reduction in operating rates has decreased by 3.9 percentage points year-on-year. The process of reducing oil production and increasing chemical production is steadily advancing. Competition in the terminal market has intensified. The number of charging stations across the country has increased by 34% year-on-year to 220,000, and the number of public charging piles has risen by 26% year-on-year to 3.5 million. Looking ahead to 2025, China's oil consumption is approaching its peak, with the annual demand for refined oil products reaching 382 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%. China's oil and petrochemical market has entered a period of transformation and reshaping. The growth momentum of oil demand has shifted, with "a decline in refined oil products and an increase in chemical oil consumption". International natural gas prices have been falling for two consecutive years. It is predicted that in 2025, Europe will import a large amount of LNG as an alternative gas source, which will drive up international gas prices.

Industry report analysis shows that global investment in oil and gas exploration and development will reach 553.8 billion US dollars in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, marking the first decline in four years. The global engineering and technical services market size was approximately 316.1 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of 3%. The new round of technological revolution led by artificial intelligence has injected strong impetus into oil and gas exploration and development. In 2024, the oil and gas production of major international oil companies rebounded, with the average oil and gas production increasing by more than 6% year-on-year, reversing the downward trend since 2019. During the same period, low-carbon investment decreased significantly. China's petroleum industry has achieved remarkable results in increasing reserves and production. In 2024, the country will add approximately 1.5 billion tons of proven geological reserves of oil and nearly 1.6 trillion cubic meters of proven geological reserves of natural gas. The national oil and gas production equivalent will reach about 412 million tons, exceeding 400 million tons for the first time. The growth rate has exceeded 10 million tons of oil equivalent for eight consecutive years, and the domestic natural gas production has maintained an increase of over 10 billion cubic meters for eight consecutive years. In 2024, the three major domestic oil companies will be committed to ensuring energy security, expanding energy transformation and strengthening technological innovation. They will focus on CCUS, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, new energy storage, generative artificial intelligence and other fields, and accelerate the development of new quality productivity. Chinese enterprises' international cooperation has been steadily advancing, breaking through the innovation of cooperation models and creating a pattern of integrated development of landmark projects and "small but beautiful" projects.

At the press conference, the Economic Research Institute made 11 judgments on the outlook for the development environment of the domestic and international oil and gas industry during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period: The global political landscape will undergo profound transformation and reshaping, and regional major powers' foreign cooperation will become more autonomous and diverse; The regionalization of the world economic map is accelerating the reconstruction of the production and supply chains. China is driving high-quality economic development with a "self-centered" approach. The global energy transition is facing twists and turns, but the general trend remains unchanged. China continues to lead the global energy transition. The acceleration of substitution has led to a slowdown in the growth rate of oil demand, and the operating center of international oil prices has declined. Global demand for natural gas has been steadily increasing, and the loose supply and demand have driven prices into a downward cycle. China is coordinating energy security and transformation, and accelerating the construction of a new energy system. China's oil consumption is about to peak and there is no plateau period. The raw material attribute of oil is constantly strengthening. The supply and demand of natural gas in China are generally loose, and the industry's rapid development has entered a crucial "window period". Competition in China's oil and gas industry chain has become increasingly fierce, and new models and business forms are accelerating their formation. Technological innovation leads the transformation and upgrading of the traditional oil and gas industry and supports the construction of a low-carbon and smart energy future. International oil companies are "strengthening oil and gas" with value growth at their core and accelerating their transformation into comprehensive low-carbon energy service providers. The report predicts that the technological progress in wind energy, solar energy, energy storage, hydrogen energy, new energy vehicles and other fields will be faster. The average annual growth rate of non-fossil energy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period will be nearly 5%, and it will account for nearly 25% of the primary energy structure by 2030. The rapid development of new energy vehicles has led to a significant slowdown in global oil demand growth, which is expected to peak at 4.61 billion tons in 2030.